Tag: podcast

Inflation Is Temporary: Bullishness on the Economy & Markets Is Wrong

The consensus for the economy is bullish. After a 6.4% annualized increase in real GDP, that’s without inflation, in the first quarter, recent forecasts are for 10% GDP growth in the second quarter, 7.5% in the 3rd, and 5% in the fourth.
As for inflation expectations, they are up. Again the consensus is that the combination of a rapidly rebounding economy, supply shortages, and tight labor market will lead to a sustained rise in prices.
The most prominent skeptic on that front is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials who believe the price increases we are seeing now are transitory.
This week’s guest, influential economist Dave Rosenberg is in the Powell camp on this one and believes the recent jump in inflation is temporary and that the overall bullishness on the economy and markets is wrong and will be challenged before the year ends.
Dave Rosenberg is the outspoken and often contrarian Chief Economist and Strategist at his independent economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research.
I began the interview by asking Rosenberg why he is as convinced that the bullish consensus is wrong as he was when he went against the crowd at the height of the tech bubble in 2000 and the housing bubble in 2007.

WEALTHTRACK #1750 broadcast on June 11, 2021

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/why-david-rosenberg-is-convinced-that-the-bullish-consensus-about-the-economy-and-markets-is-wrong/

For more detail about the evidence behind Dave Rosenberg’s convictions, he is generously sharing a recent comprehensive report, “No New Era” with us.
https://bit.ly/3io9XHu

New Opportunities and Challenges for Bond Investors

Times they are a-changin’…
With COVID vaccinations becoming widespread, savings rates high, and consumers ready to spend, the economy is reopening and rebounding with gusto.

All of these developments are creating new opportunities and challenges for bond investors.

Bond prices fall when interest rates rise and vice versa. After a 40-year bull market in bonds, with interest rates declining to record lows, has the bottom finally been reached after many false starts? How real is this uptick in rates and what does it mean for bond investors?

Our guest on WEALTHTRACK this week is Mary Ellen Stanek, Chief Investment Officer of Baird Advisors, and President of the Baird Funds, where she heads up the Fixed Income Team overseeing $91 billion dollars worth of bond investments.

Stanek discusses the rapidly changing conditions and her team’s all-weather bond strategy in what she calls uncharted waters.
WEALTHTRACK Episode #1747 broadcast on May 21, 2021
More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/new-opportunities-and-challenges-for-bond-investors-with-top-rated-bond-manager-mary-ellen-stanek/

Equity-Like Returns With Less Than Stock Market Risk

“Jack be nimble Jack be quick” isn’t a concept one usually associates with long term value investors but sometimes extraordinary times call for exceptional responses. The first quarter of 2020 was one such event for this week’s guest.
Steven Romick, who has appeared on WEALTHTRACK since our launch in 2005 rarely does television interviews which is one of the many reasons we are delighted to have him with us this week. For those of you not familiar with him, he is Co-Portfolio Manager of the FPA Crescent Fund which he founded in 1993 and ran for many years before bringing on his current team. Since its inception this go anywhere, invest in anything balanced fund has delivered better than 10% annualized returns besting the stock market and its balanced portfolio benchmarks by substantial margins.

WEALTHTRACK Episode #1746; Originally Broadcast on May 14, 2021

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/great-investor-steven-romick-loaded-up-on-unloved-stocks-during-2020-sell-off-whats-his-plan-now/

An Embarrassment of Riches in the High Growth Stock Universe

There is a rule of thumb on Wall Street that when a fund knocks it out of the park in any given year or has an exceptional winning streak for a couple of years it is bound to fall to earth sooner rather than later and lag the market, its peers, or both for several years. It’s called reversion to the mean.

With few exceptions, this week’s guest has been in the winning streak category for a while. He is Michael Lippert, Head of Technology Research at Baron Capital and portfolio manager of the firm’s high-growth stock oriented Baron Opportunity Fund

Morningstar’s one caveat about the fund’s performance has been its volatility, as it focuses entirely on companies with high rates of growth, not on the mitigating effects of returning capital to shareholders with stock buybacks or dividends. Volatility is a topic Lippert tackled in-depth in a recent quarterly letter to fund shareholders. I ask him to share his views with us.

WEALTHTRACK #1745 broadcast on May 07,2021

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/?p=22536

“The Volatility of Stock Investor Returns” Ilia D. Dichev, Emory University, Xin Zheng, University of British Columbia, 1/22/2021
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3663350

Successful Investing: Time Tested Strategies

This page is here for technical reasons. Please click here for the episode page.