LAPERRIERE: HIGH ELECTION STAKES
Wall Street’s long-time number one Washington analyst, Andy Laperriere explains why for the first time in his career he is predicting the stock market will plummet if certain candidates win the presidency.
WEALTHTRACK Episode #1241; Originally Broadcast on April 01, 2016
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Download and read: TRUMP OR SANDERS COULD CRUSH STOCKS – EVEN WITHOUT CONGRESS
We have compiled additional information and content related to this episode.ANDY LAPERRIERE
- Head U.S. Policy Research,
- Cornerstone Macro
As long time WEALTHTRACK viewers know we rarely cover politics and we only cover elections to compare the agendas of the designated Republican and Democratic presidential nominees. We usually do it once, just before the election to discuss the potential business and market winners and losers under each designated presidential candidate.
We are breaking precedent this year because this is such an extraordinary primary contest in both parties. As Donald Rumsfeld famously phrased it: There are “known knowns”, I would put candidates with long track records and more mainstream agendas within their parties in that group, such as Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz.
Then there are “known unknowns”, such as Bernie Sanders. He has a long track record but a far left agenda. How would Congress’ only self-described democratic socialist behave in the White House?
Even more unknown, what would Donald Trump do in the oval office? He would be the first president in U.S. history with no experience in government service and one of the few who was never elected to any public office.
We’ll have some answers to those questions on this week’s WEALTHTRACK.
We’ll hear from Andy Laperriere, Founding Partner and Head of U.S. Policy Research for Cornerstone Macro, a top-ranked, independent economic, market and policy research firm. Institutional Investor magazine has ranked Laperriere and his team the number one Washington analyst group for each of the past 12 years, most recently at Cornerstone Macro, and before that at ISI Group.
Laperriere recently sent one of his U.S. policy reports to clients with this headline: “Trump or Sanders Could Crush Stocks – Even Without Congress”. His strong opinions definitely got my attention because Laperriere has always been neutral in these elections. We’ll find out why he thinks this time is different.
If you can’t watch the show on television you can always view it on our website. It’s available to ourPREMIUM viewers right now and everyone else over the weekend. You’ll also find an exclusiveEXTRA interview with Andy Laperriere there.
Have a great spring weekend, and make the week ahead a profitable and productive one.
Best Regards,
Consuelo
DON’T LET THE POLITICAL NOISE AFFECT YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS
- Presidential campaigns are designed to tell us how bad things are
- Candidates promise to fix problems
- Negativity takes a toll on investor psychology
- Successful investors stick to investment discipline
- Focus on fundamentals
- Choose companies and securities that will excel in business no matter what political climate
No Bookshelf titles this week.
LAPERRIERE: HEALTHCARE UNDER PRESSURE
- Healthcare, pharmaceutical and biotech companies
may be negatively affected during election cycle
Andy Laperriere & Jeff Applegate: Could The Election Be Any Closer?
With only a handful of days to go before the election, what’s at stake for investors? How big a deal would a second term for President Obama or a first term for President Romney be for the economy and the markets? Top rated Washington analyst, Andy Laperriere and Morgan Stanley’s global Chief Investment Officer, Jeffrey Applegate weigh in on this week’s Consuelo Mack WEALTHTRACK.
Episode #919, Original Broadcast 11-02-12
Listen to the Audio Only Version:
Andy Laperriere & Jeff Applegate
It’s been a devastating week for many in the Northeast, particularly the citizens of the New Jersey and Long Island shores. For them any sense of normalcy is months away. Some will never recover it. We at WEALTHTRACK were very fortunate to escape the full brunt of Hurricane Sandy. Our homes did not lose power and our offices were closed for only two days. I hope you and your loved ones are safe as well.
Now it’s back to work to address the issues at hand. Tonight, on November 1st, the most pressing issue is the election. “Could it be any closer?” That was the headline WEALTHTRACK guest, Andy Laperriere, sent to clients recently and his answer was no! This one is just too close to call. The Washington policy veteran is tracking one election indicator in particular for guidance. It is the presidential approval rating, in the fourth year of a first term, exactly where President Obama is now. We will look back at other elections and compare them with the Obama/Romney race and hear Laperriere’s analysis.
The race might be close but for voters and investors, the stakes are significant and the outcome will determine some winners and losers. The new president has a myriad of challenges facing him including the possible fiscal cliff, which includes the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, payroll tax relief, and extended unemployment benefits. The president will make important decisions on health care and defense spending and on the possible replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke whose term expires in January of 2014.
Our guests this weekend are policy and investment pros. Andy Laperriere is Senior Managing Director of top ranked independent research firm ISI and heads its policy research team in Washington D.C. Laperriere has been a coveted Institutional Investor magazine ranked Washington team analyst for the past 14 years and the team has been ranked #1 for the past ten years. Jeffrey Applegate is the Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and is responsible for strategic and tactical asset allocation advice to clients. He leads the firm’s investment strategy team and chairs its global investment committee. I will begin the interview by asking Laperriere why he thinks the race is as close as it is. The two guests will also talk about the clear winners and losers depending upon the outcome.
On WEALTHTRACK Extra this weekend, each guest will also share a recent favorite book recommendation. If you who would like to see any of our future programs 48-hours in advance of their broadcast, you can subscribe to our WEALTHTRACK Premium subscription service on our website.
Have a great weekend. Make sure you vote. This election could be decided by a very slim margin. Make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one!
Best regards,
Consuelo
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THE ONE INVESTMENT
APPLEGATE: BETTER POLICY MIX
Emerging market equities
“It really hasn’t changed. It would still be emerging market equities to us, and we’ve been talking a lot about policy here. If you look at the policy mix in most emerging markets, it’s, for the most part, hugely superior to the policy mix, both fiscal and monetary, in most big developed markets, and you also have these economies where they’re at just a different point in their life cycle. So their potential GDP isn’t one or two or three percent in terms of potential growth. It’s more like five or six percent, so much better fundamentals and a much better policy mix. Now, emerging market equities have actually underperformed U.S. equities, not by a lot, about a percent and a half… certainly the valuation is not daunting if you look at emerging market equities. They’re actually pretty much in par with developed market with a better set of fundamentals and policy options.”
– Jeff Applegate
LAPERRIERE: INFLATION PROTECTION
Buy some hard assets
– Real estate
– Gold
[/wptabcontent] [wptabtitle] Transcript[/wptabtitle] [wptabcontent] WEALTHTRACK transcripts are now included in WEALTHTRACK Premium subscriptions. Click here to read the transcript or subscribe.“So a long-term investment I think you need some protection against the risks of higher inflation. I think given the budget situation that we have, even though I’m relatively optimistic Congress will deal with it appropriately over time, that’s a real risk coupled with a very easy monetary policy. I think you need to have some protection against long-term inflation, not near term but in the long term.”
– Andy Laperriere
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From April 7, 2011
A television exclusive with Tocqueville Funds contrarian money manager Robert Kleinschmidt and Morgan Stanley Smith Barneys Chief Investment Officer Jeff Applegate, and their surprising views of the opportunities and risk in global stock markets.
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WASHINGTON ATMOSPHERE
Top ranked policy research analyst Andy Laperriere has spent more than two decades immersed in Washington’s political scene, as both an insider and outside analyst. We asked him if the tenor of discourse in the nation’s capital is really as bad as reported?
