Podcast
Investment Risks Warranting Protective Strategies
Part 2 of 2
What does history have to teach us about the current geopolitical, economic, and investment environment? A great deal according to renowned historian Niall Ferguson.
His thesis is that applying the lessons of history to contemporary events can result in better investment outcomes.
One of the biggest, most consequential debates among economists, investors and policymakers is over inflation. Is the recent global surge in prices a temporary blip from economies reopening from pandemic shutdowns, or is it a more lasting development with serious consequences?
In this week’s program we pick up on that point – I asked Ferguson about the opposite view, that the pandemic shock and burden of record amounts of debt could actually impede growth and be disinflationary. Ferguson shares his views on this, along with his thoughts on China, cryptocurrencies, and the new world of decentralized finance.
WEALTHTRACK # 1804 broadcast on July 23, 2021
More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/renowned-historian-niall-ferguson-outlines-the-investment-risks-warranting-protective-strategies/
Bookshelf:
Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe – https://amzn.to/2Ujtdw3
Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire – https://amzn.to/2VL2HvP
The War of the World: Twentieth Century Conflict and the Descent of the West – https://amzn.to/3epbI48
The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World – https://amzn.to/3z8p0u6
The Square and the Tower: Networks and Power, from the Freemasons to Facebook – https://amzn.to/3B9jKrH
WEALTHTRACK Sponsors:
Morgan Le Fay Dreams Foundation
ClearBridge Investments: https://www.clearbridge.com/
Royce Investment Partners: https://www.roycefunds.com/
First Eagle Investment Management: https://www.feim.com/
Strategas Asset Management: https://www.strategasrp.com/
Inflation Trajectory: Understand the History
If there is one adjective we have heard repeatedly in the last year and a half it is “unprecedented”. It has been applied to describe the amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus that’s been poured into the economy. It has been used in relation to the pandemic lockdowns and reopenings, and the record-breaking runs in stock, bonds, real estate, and commodity markets.
Is there no historical precedent for these events?
Who better to ask than this week’s WEALTHTRACK guest, Niall Ferguson? Ferguson has studied booms, busts, the rise and fall of empires, the power of social networks, and catastrophes of all sorts including plagues and pandemics?
He is one of the world’s leading historians and an influential commentator on contemporary politics and economics. Ferguson is a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard, along with being the author of numerous articles, and a regular columnist for Bloomberg Opinion.
His most recent book is Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe, which analyzes how societies have reacted to crises from the Roman response to the eruption of Mount Vesuvius to how various governments have handled Covid-19.
According to Ferguson, experience has taught him that understanding history does help make us better investors. In this week’s interview, he explains why.
WEALTHTRACK #1803 broadcast on 07-16-21
More info: https://wealthtrack.com/using-history-to-predict-the-markets-with-renowned-historian-niall-ferguson/
Bookshelf:
Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe – https://amzn.to/2Ujtdw3
Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire – https://amzn.to/2VL2HvP
The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West – https://amzn.to/3epbI48
The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World – https://amzn.to/3z8p0u6
The Square and the Tower: Networks and Power, from the Freemasons to Facebook – https://amzn.to/3B9jKrH
ESG Investing: “The Race of Our Lives”
Part 2 of 2
When legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham turned 80 he made two resolutions: “to be prepared to write a cheque up to the limits of your ability”, and to “say what you think you should say to everybody”.
He is following through on both commitments. He is saying what he thinks he should say to everybody including us, to our benefit!
In this week’s show, Grantham shares his views on climate change, why he calls it the “Race of Our Lives” and how he is investing to combat it.
WEALTHTRACK #1802 broadcast on 07-09-21
More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/jeremy-grantham-shares-his-views-on-climate-change-why-he-calls-it-the-race-of-our-lives/
The Bull Market: A Bubble of “Epic Proportions”
We are celebrating the launch of WEALTHTRACK’s18th season on public television this week! We feel so fortunate to serve you.
When WEALTHTRACK launched in July of 2005 our mission was to help our audience and ourselves build financial security to last a lifetime through disciplined, long-term, diversified investing. We vowed to seek out the best minds in the financial business to guide us.
This week’s guest is unquestionably one of them.
We’ll be joined by legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham, Co-Founder of the global investment management firm, GMO, Grantham is known for his prescient calls about market extremes and game-changing turning points. I will add that being far out of consensus is never popular.
He saw the tech stock bubble inflating in 1997, three years before it actually burst. It was an early call that cost GMO half of their asset allocation book of business at the time.
In the late 2000’s he warned of the developing subprime mortgage and credit bubble and came close to calling the actual 2008 bull market peak. He then called the market bottom nearly to the day in March of 2009.
When Grantham appeared on WEALTHTRACK in 2018 he was predicting a possible market melt-up, a powerful late-stage two to three-year-long market rally before an inevitable decline.
He got the melt-up right, even when figuring in the brief, 2020 pandemic induced bear market. And of course, the bull continues to this day. The U.S. stock market had an impressive first half of the year. The S&P 500 gained 14.4% to close at 4297.5, it’s 34th record close for the year.
Grantham will explain why he is calling this a bubble of epic proportions and suggest ways that investors can handle it.
WEALTHTRACK # 1801 broadcast on July 02, 2021
More info: https://wealthtrack.com/jeremy-grantham-shares-his-most-compelling-evidence-that-we-are-in-a-bubble-of-epic-proportio
Investing in a Speculative Market: Thoughts From “The Intelligent Investor”
For financial historians and serious market observers, the current era has all the signs of a developing market bubble.
Money is abundant, a wide range of financial assets have risen to record or near-record levels, and enormous amounts of money are flowing into stocks. Private equity funds are flourishing and bonds continue to attract huge sums.
Demand for residential real estate is soaring as are home prices. And despite recent dramatic declines, innovative products such as digital currencies have appreciated at breathtaking speed.
Speculative trading by individual investors has also increased as a new growing community of online traders has emerged as a potent market-moving force.
The combination of all of these forces caused me to reach out to this week’s WEALTHTRACK guest.
We’ll be joined by Jason Zweig, a leading financial journalist who since 2008 has written the widely read The Intelligent Investor column for The Wall Street Journal. Zweig will share his analysis of the current market climate and advice for investors.
WEALTHTRACK #1752 broadcast on June 25, 2021
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