THE END OF GLOBALIZATION IS A GAME-CHANGER FOR MARKET LEADERSHIP CREATING NEW WINNERS AND LOSERS

January 24, 2020

Are we witnessing the end of globalization, the dominant trade and economic force of the last quarter-century? That is what financial thought leader Richard Bernstein is suggesting to clients. In a recent report, aptly titled: Investing for December 31, 2029 -The End of Globalization, he makes his case. And yes, he is talking about 2029!

As he notes in his report: “Market leadership always changes decade by decade, and the leadership of the past decade, which are now lauded as ‘core investments,’ seem highly unlikely to be the leadership of the next decade.” If he is correct, which he has been frequently over the years, thinking about investing for 2029 is probably a healthy exercise.

Richard Bernstein is Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors, which he founded in 2009. It now oversees or advises over 9 billion dollars in assets, lar

WEALTHTRACK Episode #1630; Originally Broadcast on Janurary 24, 2020

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Market leadership usually changes from one decade to the next. Richard Bernstein believes this new decade will be a market game-changer, which he explains in his report, Investing for December 31, 2029 – The End of Globalization.

Among his predictions are that big U.S. tech companies will not dominate global market performance in this decade. On page 9 of the report his list, “10 Largest Technology and Communication Companies in the S&P 500” illustrates the fluctuations that tech companies have experienced over the decades.

Download Investing for December 31, 2029 – The End of Globalization [pdf]


Consumers are the biggest drivers of the U.S. economy. How they feel matters which is why Richard Bernstein and other leading strategists follow the monthly consumer survey done by the University of Michigan.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

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RICHARD BERNSTEIN

START PREPARING YOUR PORTFOLIO FOR THE NEXT TEN YEARS

Market leaders of one decade are frequently laggards of next and vice versa

2010s MARKET LEADERS (12/31/2009-12/31/2019)

    U.S. Stock Market:

  • Large (S&P 500) +256.4%
  • Mid (S&P 400) +230.6%
  • Small (Russell 2000) +205.5%
  • NETFLIX +4000%

2010s MARKET LAGGARDS (12/31/2009-12/31/2019)

  • Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index) +48.3%
  • Brazil (Ibovespa) -26.9% (USD)
  • Gold +38.9%
  • U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) + 39.2%
    Commodities:

  • S&P GSCI -16.9%
  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – 23.1%

No Bookshelf titles this week.

CONTRARIAN PROTECTION

    Own Gold and/or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)

  • extremely under-owned assets
  • inflation expectations at record lows
  • both offer inflation protection

GraniteShares Gold Trust (BAR) ETF BAR Chart

BAR data by YCharts

iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) MCHI Chart

MCHI data by YCharts

Richard Bernstein from the WEALTHTRACK Archives:

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INFRASTRUCTURE CRISIS

Richard Bernstein is known for his macro calls and asset allocation skills. He is raising the alarm about the deteriorating state of infrastructure investment in the U.S. and its consequences.


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