ROBERT DOLL: MARKET ORACLE

July 18, 2014

This week’s WEALTHTRACK guest has made a name for himself with his annual predictions and with his proven investment skill. Bob Doll, Chief Equity Strategist and Senior Portfolio Manager at Nuveen Asset Management, has run several large cap stock mutual funds for three decades. We’ll get a personal take on his mid-year predictions for investment opportunities, and traps to avoid.

WEALTHTRACK Episode #1104; Originally Broadcast on July 18, 2014

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Bob Doll

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ROBERT DOLL

Chief Equity Strategist & Senior Portfolio Manager

Nuveen Asset Management

Consuelo Mack

It is hard to retain one’s optimism in the face of horrendous events like the shooting down of the Malaysian airline.  Investors were psychologically shaken and justifiably so yesterday.  However the most successful investors, Sir John Templeton comes to mind, are optimists and having lived through depression, world wars and umpteen crisis believe in a better future and human progress.  No matter what was happening in the world, Sir John was actively and avidly investing, even in his final years.

We are following his example on WEALTHTRACK.

Indexing and quantitative investment pioneer Dean LeBaron once said that “forecasts can be injurious to your wealth”.  The late legendary financial historian Peter Bernstein repeated “the future is unknowable” several times on WEALTHTRACK.  But that doesn’t mean that we won’t or shouldn’t try to figure out what might happen, or that the exercise isn’t helpful to the investment process.

This week’s WEALTHTRACK guest has made a name for himself with his annual predictions as well as with his investment skill running several large-cap stock mutual funds for three decades. Robert Doll is an original member of the WealthTrack brain trust. Now the Chief Equity Strategist and Senior Portfolio Manager at Nuveen Asset Management, he was the Chief Equity Strategist at BlackRock and the Chief Investment Officer at Merrill Lynch Investment Managers, as well as its President.

In addition to writing his widely followed weekly commentaries and annual market predictions, he has been the portfolio manager of several leading large-cap mutual funds for decades, a job he resumed last year at Nuveen. His Nuveen Large Cap Value, Growth and Core funds have all outperformed the market and their peers in the year he has been running them.

Doll recently reviewed the status of his ten 2014 annual predictions.  Here’s a quick mid-year update:

His forecast of 3% economic growth is still a dream, not a reality, but he is looking better on housing improving and hit it on the nail with private employment hitting an all-time high.

  •  10-year Treasury yields have not moved up toward 3.5%. They have remained under 3%.
  • U.S. equities are having a good year so far, although we have yet to see Doll’s 10% correction.
  •  Cyclical stocks have not outperformed defensive ones – the opposite has happened.
  • Dividends, stock buybacks and merger and acquisitions have definitely taken off, while corporate capital spending has not.
  •  The dollar hasn’t appreciated much this year but U.S. energy production and manufacturing are booming.
  • Contrary to his expectation that gold would fall and commodities would languish, they have appreciated.
  •  As predicted, municipal bonds have outperformed taxable bonds by a wide margin.
  • The jury is still out on whether active funds will outperform index funds.  So far the performance is mixed.

We will have to wait until November to gauge Doll’s prediction that the Republicans increase their lead in the House but fall short of capturing the Senate.

On this week’s WEALTHTRACK we’ll get his assessment of his predictions as well as where he sees investment opportunities and traps. Plus, in our EXTRA feature on our website Doll reveals where he’s investing his own money.

Have a great weekend. Stay safe, and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one.

Best regards,

Consuelo Mathews Asia

Take Some Profits In Your Top Performers Of The Last Five Years

  • Sell a percentage of funds or stocks that have delivered biggest gains
  • Reinvest in lagging sectors or funds, or keep in cash

No Bookshelf titles this week.

Growing Dividends

Invest in funds or stocks with dividend growth

Some Morningstar favorites:

SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY)

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Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX)

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

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Macy’s Inc. (M)

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Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)

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Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

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Medtronic Inc. (MDT)

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SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY)

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Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX)

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Archive episodes available soon.

BOB DOLL: BULLISH ON STOCKS

Bob Doll is a widely followed strategist and portfolio manager, an unusual combination at major Wall Street firms, who has excelled in both disciplines. We began the interview by asking Bob to step way back from the noise of the day and share his longer term views of where we are and where we are heading. My first question was why, after the worst decade since the 1930’s, he is predicting that stock returns in this decade will be in the high single digits.

WATCH NOW…

ED HYMAN AND BOB DOLL

An exclusive interview with Wall Street’s long time number one economist Ed Hyman and Great Investor Bob Doll. What they expect in the economy and markets in 2012 and strategies to prosper in it. WATCH NOW…

BOB DOLL, JOHN MONTGOMERY AND TOM PETRIE

Three outstanding financial world figures: Bob Doll runs three large cap funds at BlackRock; John Montgomery heads up a family of funds using computer models at Bridgeway Capital; Tom Petrie, Vice Chairman of Bank of America – Merrill Lynch, is a veteran observer of the energy sector

WATCH NOW…

Personal Portfolio

Bob Doll has always worn two hats, one as a strategist and the other as a portfolio manager of large-cap stock funds, roles he continues today at Nuveen Asset Management. The only difference is that he is now overseeing nine large cap mutual funds under the Nuveen name. In addition to his “Traditional” large cap Value, Growth and Core funds he is managing what Nuveen calls “Specialty” large cap funds:  Core Dividend, Concentrated Core and Stable Growth. He is also running what are being called  “Alternative” funds: Large Cap Core Plus, Equity Long/Short and Equity Market Neutral.

With all of these choices where is Doll investing his own money?


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